Abbiamo un surplus di conoscenza inutilizzata?

Via via che la “società della conoscenza” prende piede, si accumula un surplus di informazione che per alcuni è già un sovraccarico.

Jeff Colombe propone un punto di vista diverso.

The aptitude economy | AAAS MemberCentral


In a previous post, I discussed a theory of human history based on how majorities of people engage in particular forms of labor at different times, in a succession from hunter-gatherer societies, to agricultural, industrial, and information societies. This view proposes that each ‘wave’ of activity produces a surplus that sets up the next ‘wave.’ Once we have collectively made the satisfaction of some human need efficient enough, we go on to the next most important need.

Recently, a large amount of economic activity has been targeted at producing a surplus of useful knowledge, information, and data. Tools such as automatic computing hardware, databases, communication networks, search engines, crowd-sourcing, social networks, and advances in artificial intelligence have been pushing into the space of making useful knowledge content available to individuals and organizations. If this useful knowledge becomes a surplus (and it might already be a surplus), what should we work on next?

There is an interesting dilemma to consider. Prehistory for modern humans lasted about 200,000 years, agricultural civilization a few thousand years, industrial civilization hundreds of years, and information civilization only decades. This acceleration is combined with greater life expectancy for most humans today. We will likely live through the next several revolutions in human labor. It would pay to have a road map.

I propose that a gathering surplus of useful knowledge indicates that development of human and machine aptitude will be the next ‘big thing.’ What will be most economically precious in the next ten years will be the ability of humans and machines to make sense of all of that knowledge, and to know how to use it most effectively to achieve desired outcomes. This boils down to the development of cognitive skills, or in popular speak, ‘becoming smarter.’

How can we make this happen? And how can we help people understand and cope with what might otherwise be a difficult transition?

Doccia scozzese –

Una nota di ottimismo …

Italian bond yields dip below 7% –

The Italian markets were helped by signs that political deadlock in Rome may be easing.

Italian 10-year bond yields dropped to 6.88 per cent, a fall of 36 basis points on the day after lurching higher initially.

Italy’s extra cost to borrow over Germany also eased back by 42bp to 510bp. This is significant as it means clearing houses, which fuelled the sell-off on Wednesday, are less likely to impose additional margin charges for the trading of the country’s bonds.

[E oggi va persino meglio]

… e una di pessimismo.

Why Italy’s days in the eurozone may be numbered | The A-List | Must-read views on today’s top news stories – –

Even a change in Italian government to a coalition headed by a respected technocrat will not change the fundamental problem – that spreads have reached a tipping point, that output is free-falling and that, given a debt to GDP ratio of 120 per cent, Italy needs a primary surplus of over 5 per cent of GDP just to prevent its debt from blowing up.

Output now is in a vicious free fall. More austerity and reforms – that are necessary for medium-term sustainability – will make this recession worse. Raising taxes, cutting spending and getting rid of inefficient labour and capital during structural reforms have a negative effect on disposable income, jobs, aggregate demand and supply. The recessionary deflation that Germany and the ECB are imposing on Italy and the other periphery countries will make the debt more unsustainable.

Se Roubini ha ragione, non ne veniamo fuori.

Pugno di burro in guanto di velluto [Proverbi pessimisti 12]

Come restare in un confortevole baratro (sommesso suggerimento per governi semi-tecnici).