Una nota di ottimismo …
The Italian markets were helped by signs that political deadlock in Rome may be easing.
Italian 10-year bond yields dropped to 6.88 per cent, a fall of 36 basis points on the day after lurching higher initially.
Italy’s extra cost to borrow over Germany also eased back by 42bp to 510bp. This is significant as it means clearing houses, which fuelled the sell-off on Wednesday, are less likely to impose additional margin charges for the trading of the country’s bonds.
[E oggi va persino meglio]
… e una di pessimismo.
Why Italy’s days in the eurozone may be numbered | The A-List | Must-read views on today’s top news stories – FT.com – FT.com
Even a change in Italian government to a coalition headed by a respected technocrat will not change the fundamental problem – that spreads have reached a tipping point, that output is free-falling and that, given a debt to GDP ratio of 120 per cent, Italy needs a primary surplus of over 5 per cent of GDP just to prevent its debt from blowing up.
Output now is in a vicious free fall. More austerity and reforms – that are necessary for medium-term sustainability – will make this recession worse. Raising taxes, cutting spending and getting rid of inefficient labour and capital during structural reforms have a negative effect on disposable income, jobs, aggregate demand and supply. The recessionary deflation that Germany and the ECB are imposing on Italy and the other periphery countries will make the debt more unsustainable.
Se Roubini ha ragione, non ne veniamo fuori.