Sbagliando s'impera

La finestra di opportunità per salvare l’euro si sta rapidamente chiudendo …

Sabato la crisi ha spazzato via un altro leader: Berlusconi ha rassegnato le dimissioni, dopo aver dominato la scena politica italiana per 17 anni, tra i frizzi e i lazzi della folla romana.

For European Union and the Euro, a Moment of Truth – NYTimes.com

The window of opportunity to save the euro is rapidly closing, as the sovereign debt crisis erodes the solvency of Europe’s banks and drives up borrowing rates for even once rock-solid countries like France.

On Saturday, the crisis swept away another leader, when Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi resigned after 17 years of dominance in Italian politics to the jeers and cheers of crowds in Rome.

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Il Paese spazzato dalla bufera della crisi del debito, un capoitale politico imponenete dissipato: le dimissioni di Berlusconi segnano la fine di una settimana tumultuosa ma anche di un’era. “Il momento più difficile della nostra storia recente” secondo il direttore del Corriere della sera.

Ma in tutta Europa le turbolenze dei mercati finanziari hanno di fatto sospeso i tradizionali processi democratici.

Berlusconi Resigns After Italy’s Parliament Approves Austerity Measures – NYTimes.com

With his country swept up in Europe’s debt crisis and his once-mighty political capital spent, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi resigned on Saturday, punctuating a tumultuous week and ending an era in Italian politics.

His exit, a sudden fall after months of political stalemate, paves the way for a new government of technocrats led by Mario Monti, a former member of the European Commission. Mr. Monti is likely to be installed in the next few days, following the apparent consent of key blocs of Mr. Berlusconi’s center-right coalition.

His resignation came just days after the fall of Prime Minister George A. Papandreou in Greece. Both men were swept away amid a larger crisis that has threatened the entire European Union, in which roiling financial markets have upended traditional democratic processes.

Though it was met by cheering crowds in Rome, the end of Mr. Berlusconi’s 17-year chapter in Italian politics, characterized by his defiance and fortitude, sets off a jarring political transition. “This is the most dramatic moment of our recent history,” Ferruccio de Bortoli, the editor of the Milan daily newspaper Corriere della Sera, said Saturday.

After borrowing rates on Italian bonds soared last week to levels that have required other euro zone countries to seek bailouts, Mr. Berlusconi pledged to step down after the Italian Parliament approved austerity measures sought by the European Union.

The lower house gave their final approval to some of the measures on Saturday afternoon, and two hours later, he officially submitted his resignation to President Giorgio Napolitano.

L’allarme di Stiglitz: «Mai come ora l’euro può fallire» | Linkiesta.it

Il premio Nobel per l’economia, presente a Milano a un private meeting, parla a ruota libera della moneta unica europea, considerata sull’orlo del fallimento strutturale. Con un chiaro riferimento all’Italia, al centro della pressione degli investitori che hanno ormai perso la fiducia verso Roma, spiega che non serve solo l’austerità. «I tagli indiscriminati fanno decrescere la domanda e rallentano la crescita». E avverte: «La crisi è cominciata nel 2007 e nel 2017 i suoi effetti si sentiranno ancora».

Wikipedia.org

Una nota di ottimismo …

Italian bond yields dip below 7% – FT.com

The Italian markets were helped by signs that political deadlock in Rome may be easing.

Italian 10-year bond yields dropped to 6.88 per cent, a fall of 36 basis points on the day after lurching higher initially.

Italy’s extra cost to borrow over Germany also eased back by 42bp to 510bp. This is significant as it means clearing houses, which fuelled the sell-off on Wednesday, are less likely to impose additional margin charges for the trading of the country’s bonds.

[E oggi va persino meglio]

… e una di pessimismo.

Why Italy’s days in the eurozone may be numbered | The A-List | Must-read views on today’s top news stories – FT.com – FT.com

Even a change in Italian government to a coalition headed by a respected technocrat will not change the fundamental problem – that spreads have reached a tipping point, that output is free-falling and that, given a debt to GDP ratio of 120 per cent, Italy needs a primary surplus of over 5 per cent of GDP just to prevent its debt from blowing up.

Output now is in a vicious free fall. More austerity and reforms – that are necessary for medium-term sustainability – will make this recession worse. Raising taxes, cutting spending and getting rid of inefficient labour and capital during structural reforms have a negative effect on disposable income, jobs, aggregate demand and supply. The recessionary deflation that Germany and the ECB are imposing on Italy and the other periphery countries will make the debt more unsustainable.

Se Roubini ha ragione, non ne veniamo fuori.

I have been examining and re-examining the situation, trying to find the potential happy ending. It isn’t there. The euro zone is in a death spiral. Markets are abandoning the periphery, including Italy, which is the world’s eighth largest economy and third largest bond market. This is triggering margin calls and leading banks to pull credit from the European market. This, in turn, is damaging the European economy, which is already being squeezed by the austerity programmes adopted in every large euro-zone economy. A weakening economy will damage revenues, undermining efforts at fiscal consolidation, further driving away investors and potentially triggering more austerity. The cycle will continue until something breaks. Eventually, one economy or another will face a true bank run and severe capital flight and will be forced to adopt capital controls. At that point, it will effectively be out of the euro area. What happens next isn’t clear, but it’s unlikely to be pretty.

The euro crisis: Finito? | The Economist